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2011 Gold Outlook – Will Goldman be right again?

In our 2010 outlook, most big brokerage houses predicted gold would rise anywhere from 5-30% and finish 2010 in the range of $1150 – $1500. Goldman Sachs 2011 prediction was within 5% of the actual price per ounce of gold which ended 2010 around $1400 USD. To recap the 2010 predictions before we move on to 2011..

GLD gets cautious but long term view still intact

After topping $110 earlier in the week, GLD receded quickly and ended the week around $108 in cautious trading. An recent acceleration in Chinese inflation sparked worries that the country may tighten monetary policy to curb the trend. Gold In supply news, South Africa’s statistics service said the country’s gold output fell a full 18.2 percent year-on-year in January.

Recent trends between the Euro and Gold Prices

Traditionally investors in gold have used this precious metal as a safe haven at times when risk aversion is at its highest and therefore, fears regarding inflation and the security of the US economy have historically driven its price up. Owing to this it has exhibited a strong inverse relationship with movements in the US dollar on foreign exchange markets until recently when, due to several factors, this longstanding relationship has started to turn on its head.